TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

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Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c59…1766backed Yes10c9,933$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.86453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe2fa…3248backed Yes4c8,196$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes58c5,236$3,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,012.17425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+353.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes18c4,564$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.648038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0d…ed88backed Yes54c4,213$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes38c3,000$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.9711425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes15c2,224$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.213718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…09f7backed Yes58c1,871$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed Yes7c1,212$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.38650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes12c1,041$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0320130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes7c1,010$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.499333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes12c1,001$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.662536%9 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b63…f9ccbacked Yes77c887.76$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8d…6f61backed Yes2c835.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+69.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ab…6943backed Yes15c819.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes42c802.76$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.8111836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes68c773.9$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.3911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-85.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes13c706.8$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes15c666.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002254.5%12 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+65.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Yes63c614.51$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.43425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc5…e19abacked No49c570.3$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e3b…412fbacked Yes23c564.21$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Yes9c512.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yes25c500$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1234148.8%20 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x14cb…1d0cbacked Yes4c490$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c446.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.331,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd9…714ebacked Yes70c432.87$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c430$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes25c401.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.475046%23 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…c1d5backed Yes5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12e…25acbacked Yes7c393.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c392.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4252…4a6ebacked Yes79c379.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes17c351.16$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+64.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes67c340$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.851942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes68c323.03$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3125837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29e9…fec1backed Yes6c315.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485547.3%26 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa142…375abacked Yes69c291.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes69c287.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes9c268.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.08767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes10c263.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2636945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed39…60dcbacked Yes17c259.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes7c253.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.491867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf47…326ebacked Yes69c226.87$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfadb…75e7backed Yes13c224.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes5c220$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2211850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes44c217.09$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9111720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c203.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.12522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0627…82b1backed Yes74c202.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9dd…55c4backed Yes50c201.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b2…1a2dbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+228.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3289417.1%153 W · 741 L-145.2wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes9c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19553.6%2 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b11…d869backed Yes13c199.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c7…7070backed Yes12c198$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9df8…639cbacked Yes70c196.73$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes7c185.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137824.4%19 W · 59 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16a1…a8cfbacked Yes75c166.49$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f82…8f58backed Yes70c155.4$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked No33c152.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.324271.4%30 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No15c151.47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.758247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked No34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dc…0b72backed Yes69c130.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c129.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.633042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed Yes22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.36234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes69c107.73$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.129041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes47c105.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3811124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5c2f…57aabacked Yes20c105$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x852b…7af0backed Yes70c100.43$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5064…bd21backed Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd476…ad00backed Yes69c96.52$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-55.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8046…ec1dbacked Yes69c92.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4560%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed Yes62c84.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.462050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e1c5backed Yes21c82.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4f8cbacked Yes24c81.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce3…b486backed Yes76c80.91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…7421backed Yes64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb59c…bd40backed Yes26c78.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6674…c516backed Yes62c77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.66366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ebb…44c9backed Yes70c76.13$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff81…d79ebacked Yes68c74.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eee…0082backed Yes68c74.24$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffc…9107backed Yes68c73.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502650%13 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…2968backed Yes35c71.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…4153backed Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…6e0dbacked Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x040f…a977backed Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf557…392abacked Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e60…e369backed Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae05…6d6cbacked Yes79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf104…ac43backed Yes78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd763…cbc2backed Yes78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2740…c5b7backed Yes78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d43…b626backed Yes78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9a…fc5fbacked Yes78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8638…6a0bbacked Yes78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x323c…8cafbacked Yes78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45ca…ec72backed Yes80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.