AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4fcbfcdee5d956bc2e234e501859c8783444a2c89b8e2f2fd7c00b7e39ae76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $422,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $359,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 7c | 48,614$3,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,228.43 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 14c | 31,444$4,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,455.37 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 4c | 29,239$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.97 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 8c | 13,530$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.24 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…178dbacked No | 19c | 7,731$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked No | 8c | 5,812$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 5,269$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 5c | 4,643$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80c2…561cbacked No | 8c | 3,700$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed No | 6c | 3,481$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 3c | 2,987$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 4c | 2,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 27c | 2,451$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 11c | 2,367$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.68 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 17c | 2,280$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.74 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 10c | 2,268$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.29 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 4c | 2,266$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 2,188$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.03 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 5c | 1,973$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…8d7bbacked No | 32c | 1,941$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 8c | 1,893$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 4c | 1,862$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 1,704$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 64c | 1,680$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.96 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 4c | 1,435$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 1,428$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 23c | 1,358$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 5c | 1,354$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 1,273$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 1,272$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked No | 7c | 1,243$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,211$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b2…1a2dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,200$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 3c | 1,198$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…ec6abacked No | 7c | 1,185$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 1,128$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 3c | 1,102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked No | 7c | 1,083$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x112b…cfe0backed No | 9c | 1,062$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 3c | 999.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 12c | 999.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 10c | 979.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 18c | 906.77$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 900$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 19c | 895.14$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.63 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 878$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.2 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…92f7backed No | 67c | 869.24$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 7c | 834.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 834$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked No | 7c | 832.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…e19abacked Yes | 69c | 793.58$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 11c | 765.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed No | 8c | 747.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b5…42ddbacked Yes | 71c | 745.64$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked Yes | 78c | 718.86$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c0…d9ffbacked No | 5c | 696.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed No | 2c | 660.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 17c | 626.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…2d99backed No | 8c | 600.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 27c | 600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…6c96backed No | 17c | 594.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bb…79fabacked No | 7c | 589.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 24c | 582.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…7a08backed No | 3c | 513.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 499.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 9c | 490$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…a677backed Yes | 13c | 450.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…ca61backed Yes | 26c | 450$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed No | 16c | 425.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed No | 7c | 409.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe599…0dd3backed No | 7c | 407.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 19c | 400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed No | 5c | 374.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked No | 5c | 357.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 9c | 350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 337.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 77c | 331.51$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…20e3backed No | 5c | 310.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 7c | 307.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…8db6backed No | 7c | 306.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…aa43backed No | 9c | 304.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714ebacked Yes | 33c | 303.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…a0c7backed No | 10c | 301.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 18c | 296.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c6…2bafbacked No | 16c | 288.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 9c | 283.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 13c | 281.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 9c | 264.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 30c | 264.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 8c | 250.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…7030backed No | 10c | 248.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 237.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…736fbacked No | 4c | 235.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 12c | 234.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c27bbacked Yes | 78c | 230$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…b14ebacked Yes | 61c | 216.17$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…bf5cbacked No | 9c | 210.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will JumpJumpVPN: Fast & Secure be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will UpScrolled be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
- Will V2Box - V2ray Client be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.