Other European Leagues · resolved market

Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c79f34532e0ae7b12b7e3eba196fc18cf83f0855d6f19df61b00ff078516d9

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $259,969
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $266,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,969 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x37e4…c991backed Over	52c	165,706$85,510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80,195.96	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.5wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Under	48c	161,872$77,484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77,484.37	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Under	49c	67,000$32,830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32,830	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee0d…57abbacked Over	52c	60,000$31,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28,549.99	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	48c	5,471$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,624.92	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	4,341$2,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,241.93	7,889	45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L	+11.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Over	52c	3,333$1,733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,599.84	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over	47c	2,297$1,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,209.3	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc9…18c4backed Over	52c	1,940$1,009 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$931.2	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	52c	1,622$850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$772.26	435	46.7%203 W · 232 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	46c	1,232$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.58	2,334	46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5858…dc6bbacked Over	50c	1,200$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	52c	1,100$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528	670	50.6%339 W · 331 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over	31c	742$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.37	96	37.5%36 W · 60 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	57c	733.3$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.72	5,604	42%2,356 W · 3,248 L	+75.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over	51c	639.68$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.31	124	26.6%33 W · 91 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	55c	620.36$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.36	136	62.5%85 W · 51 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Under	66c	463.2$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-6.5wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-11%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Over	54c	462.96$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.96	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	35c	433.03$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.67	117	46.2%54 W · 63 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under	48c	356.84$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.28	111	36.9%41 W · 70 L	-15.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	47c	354$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.16	94	56.4%53 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12e8…2cecbacked Under	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5b8…99f3backed Under	10c	299.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	57c	287.9$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.84	2,179	48%1,046 W · 1,133 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea6…d837backed Under	10c	270$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	48c	268.07$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.87	2,640	35.7%942 W · 1,698 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	47c	250$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.5	116	56%65 W · 51 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc208…e74fbacked Under	48c	229.16$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	107	59.8%64 W · 43 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	187	49.7%93 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6f…1dfebacked Over	56c	199.36$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.36	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c38…3d15backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over	53c	190$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.3	199	54.3%108 W · 91 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	47c	183.59$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.32	2,309	42.8%988 W · 1,321 L	-41.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2583…30d5backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.17per pick	62cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Under	45c	180$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	96	38.5%37 W · 59 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	51c	169.65$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.61	266	53.4%142 W · 124 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Over	53c	165.7$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.88	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	51cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over	47c	160$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.1	86	50%43 W · 43 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	50c	145.92$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.42	513	56.3%289 W · 224 L	+23.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over	43c	144.91$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.6	49	30.6%15 W · 34 L	-3.8wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	47c	140$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.2	136	53.7%73 W · 63 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	45c	125$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.25	1,467	48%704 W · 763 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	47c	120.74$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.2	79	57%45 W · 34 L	+4.6wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	47c	120$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.8	126	55.6%70 W · 56 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	47c	118.19$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	237	46.8%111 W · 126 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	45c	111.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	107	56.1%60 W · 47 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Under	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.21per pick	55cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over	33c	100$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67	167	25.7%43 W · 124 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf035…d35fbacked Over	54c	91.84$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.84	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over	72c	80.16$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.42	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	67c	74.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	278	64.4%179 W · 99 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	29c	70$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.7	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	40c	62.5$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	202	41.6%84 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under	48c	62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	157	53.5%84 W · 73 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Over	41c	60.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.98	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	+5.6wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	46c	60.89$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.74	2,543	52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L	+18.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	45c	60$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	91	59.3%54 W · 37 L	+6.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	55c	54.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	258	59.7%154 W · 104 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b56…b99abacked Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+66.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	65c	50.77$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.77	478	42.9%205 W · 273 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	53c	47.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.95	501	46.1%231 W · 270 L	-17.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb8…a474backed Over	54c	47.2$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.71	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed Over	52c	45.86$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.01	69	71%49 W · 20 L	+10.6wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Over	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under	49c	36.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over	49c	36.08$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	136	53.7%73 W · 63 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Under	44c	35.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	102	36.3%37 W · 65 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa507…4e3abacked Over	40c	35$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+5.2wins	+0.35per pick	39cpaid	+89.2%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4c5c…8080backed Over	53c	33.81$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.89	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd430…78b8backed Under	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x282a…2866backed Over	49c	30.6$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.18per pick	42cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Under	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	54	63%34 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	52c	28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.44	834	40.8%340 W · 494 L	-35.3wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd12e…27c2backed Under	48c	26.19$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc981…a53dbacked Over	52c	25.77$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.37	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+3.0wins	+0.38per pick	50cpaid	+75.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	1,401	29.2%409 W · 992 L	-32.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5e…494fbacked Over	55c	22.8$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.35	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+83.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x485d…fc8abacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Over	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	230	61.3%141 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb71…434dbacked Over	55c	18.98$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.54	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5this page
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 1.5Over won
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 3.5Under won
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event