TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will anyone say "Prophecy" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,923 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3577…6effbacked Yes47c716.39$340 inWon+$376.393096.7%29 W · 1 L+13.3wins+0.44per pick52cpaid+91.3%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0xcbcc…6d6abacked No49c182$88 inLost-$88.341136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No48c170$81 inLost-$80.82236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No49c110$54 inLost-$53.94440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No49c110$54 inLost-$53.94841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No47c100$47 inLost-$4710830.6%33 W · 75 L-13.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No13c91.37$12 inLost-$11.8822030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c88$42 inLost-$42.4587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No50c87.05$44 inLost-$43.5323130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No42c60$25 inLost-$24.97032.9%23 W · 47 L-14.8wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xf903…e028backed Yes38c56$21 inWon+$34.722470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No49c46$23 inLost-$22.544119.5%8 W · 33 L-7.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-69.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No49c46$23 inLost-$22.544930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3c5…e6c9backed No53c36.89$20 inLost-$19.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcca4…abb1backed Yes47c35$16 inWon+$18.55633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes47c30$14 inWon+$15.95554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed Yes34c30$10 inWon+$19.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No70c30$21 inLost-$211947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No50c30$15 inLost-$151471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No49c25$12 inLost-$12.364930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed Yes52c20$10 inWon+$9.681957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.