TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will anyone say "Marriage" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,385 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3577…6effbacked No48c928.75$443 inWon+$485.853096.7%29 W · 1 L+13.3wins+0.44per pick52cpaid+91.3%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0xa96b…4404backed Yes52c299.73$155 inLost-$155.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c200$57 inLost-$5747328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c156.09$48 inLost-$4887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes39c110$43 inLost-$42.910830.6%33 W · 75 L-13.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xcbcc…6d6abacked Yes22c106.76$23 inLost-$23.141136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked Yes52c100$52 inLost-$5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes52c100$52 inLost-$5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes52c92$48 inLost-$47.844440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes52c92$48 inLost-$47.844841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes53c50$27 inLost-$26.53336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes32c50$16 inLost-$167032.9%23 W · 47 L-14.8wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xcca4…abb1backed Yes53c45$24 inLost-$23.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed Yes52c40$21 inLost-$20.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes52c40$21 inLost-$20.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes51c20$10 inLost-$10.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d4d…4a9dbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0657…2b79backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ec…d394backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9882…1d24backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e2…13e1backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13eb…a4e6backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.