TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will anyone say "Grace" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E6 S3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $859 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e94…e436backed No55c453.47$250 inWon+$203.47988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick50cpaid+68.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes47c173.55$81 inLost-$80.752236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c71$33 inLost-$33.3787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes21c55$12 inLost-$11.557445.9%34 W · 40 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed No69c35$24 inWon+$10.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes37c30.25$11 inLost-$11.197032.9%23 W · 47 L-14.8wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xb5f4…68f8backed No79c30$24 inWon+$6.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbcc…6d6abacked No79c25$20 inWon+$5.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No70c20$14 inWon+$62045%9 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+50.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.