TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will anyone say "Wine" during House of the Dragon E6 S3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,907 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0678…79c8backed Yes35c653.72$226 inLost-$226.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No65c200$130 inWon+$704930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No66c152.72$101 inWon+$51.9223130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e94…e436backed No69c40.58$28 inWon+$12.58988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick50cpaid+68.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes33c40$13 inLost-$13.210830.6%33 W · 75 L-13.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xcca4…abb1backed No66c40$26 inWon+$13.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No68c30$20 inWon+$9.67445.9%34 W · 40 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbcc…6d6abacked No69c30$21 inWon+$9.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No65c20$13 inWon+$7933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No66c20$13 inWon+$6.85554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No66c20$13 inWon+$6.83748.6%18 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No65c20$13 inWon+$7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5c…767bbacked No65c20$13 inWon+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked No65c17.82$12 inWon+$6.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No67c17.82$12 inWon+$5.886656.1%37 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.