Movies · resolved market
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c93089abb3544f6ba59c225532b76a7206b8aa69d564d4577e60d576283e87a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 2c | 4,034$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 3,743$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 77c | 3,241$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.66 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 61c | 2,958$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.07 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…f9c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,841$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 10c | 1,006$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…d2b3backed Yes | 73c | 920$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 40c | 900$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…01a1backed Yes | 2c | 856.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 30c | 765$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.01 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 65c | 706.8$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.86 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 20c | 705$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.75 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 7c | 619$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 560$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed No | 20c | 409.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bb…6c33backed Yes | 4c | 406$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 297$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 7c | 233.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 19c | 224.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.67 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 39c | 148$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 19c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c5…7b67backed Yes | 28c | 54.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…5c64backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 54c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?this page
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?Yes won
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.