Movies · resolved market
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb09a55489baa45d6e15f61e218d9e3842cbc99e5d0cab3835f24098514cc1496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 36c | 9,389$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,972.69 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 6c | 5,712$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 2c | 2,927$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…d2b3backed Yes | 24c | 2,680$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed No | 2c | 2,602$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 10c | 781.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 66c | 707.6$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 10c | 436.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…a45ebacked No | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 6c | 380$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…d9b2backed No | 8c | 260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2173…7b17backed No | 11c | 254.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 62c | 169.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…5b19backed Yes | 25c | 118.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 57c | 103$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 75c | 102$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…236cbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 16c | 94.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed Yes | 79c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 11c | 89.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e64…bd37backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…5c64backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…a528backed Yes | 73c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?this page
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.5m?No won
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.