Movies · resolved market
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-12.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e5d8df93073843347d153d1a0a290185e4c3965908b66788b79d2f01746d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 11,352$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.56 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0592…70e7backed Yes | 2c | 9,091$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,355$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.19 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.83 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,936$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 14c | 1,221$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 577.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 8c | 555.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 14c | 555.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 11c | 440$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 14c | 354.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 6c | 199.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 146$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 145.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 140.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 127.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…0790backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-12.5m?this page
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12.5-14m?No won
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $11m?Yes won
- Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $14m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.