Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564f8a754f7ea3b5c1924a565d0c4906932a6a31bfa8c5dc5988e9e466f1b40c

Rebuilt 19 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,690 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	60c	859.42$516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.77	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed Yes	59c	334.54$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.17	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	40c	270$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.7	136	39%53 W · 83 L	+12.0wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+89.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No	39c	254.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	54.4%56 W · 47 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked Yes	38c	249.69$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.3	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a9b…7a60backed No	40c	222.72$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes	47c	212.3$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.3	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	56c	199.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	165	41.2%68 W · 97 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed No	40c	177.4$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.66	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	47cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No	61c	177$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.27	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-5.6wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes	73c	137$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.66	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3eabbacked No	35c	125.32$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.31	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…d2fbbacked No	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	60c	106.97$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.77	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	62c	104.35$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.88	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4e…5b7cbacked No	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.27per pick	38cpaid	-79.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	70	40%28 W · 42 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2e3…3327backed No	63c	95.24$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.23per pick	60cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No	64c	80$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ab…9aa1backed No	41c	73.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No	61c	70$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes	40c	65.77$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.67	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+7.2wins	+0.21per pick	41cpaid	+62.6%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed No	80c	63.68$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.69	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked No	41c	60.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc0…36dcbacked No	63c	50$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	60c	48$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes	41c	39$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.01	133	42.1%56 W · 77 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	47c	37.77$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No	46c	35.44$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x487a…56d4backed Yes	38c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	40c	25.79$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.58	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25ea…e2b0backed Yes	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed Yes	57c	24.29$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	61c	22.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+87.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef5…5047backed Yes	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…9cc3backed Yes	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1977backed Yes	62c	16.46$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.29	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event