Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Abraham" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5cb362d7f20279f44174870044de409b50ce2838d6316df61c1f235c7b64ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed No | 1c | 3,260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…7005backed Yes | 60c | 939.78$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…6fc4backed No | 63c | 622.47$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed No | 43c | 444.06$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…40f4backed No | 33c | 351.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 324.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked No | 26c | 249.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 30c | 247.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 73c | 245$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 36c | 240$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…82a1backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 66c | 152.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…a50fbacked No | 66c | 151.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 33c | 147.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 25c | 141.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 68c | 109$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc111…0c2ebacked Yes | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e2…126bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +183.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…5b7cbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…cd45backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 25c | 96.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…6009backed Yes | 48c | 94.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 53c | 87.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…8919backed Yes | 72c | 72.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 55c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 55c | 65.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…92fdbacked Yes | 69c | 60.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 27c | 56.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…dc46backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 45.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked No | 47c | 42.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 30c | 33.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 49c | 26.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed No | 50c | 21.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…3eabbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 64c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Abraham" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Muslim" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "UFC" or "America 250" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.