Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb578531de82d7baf1418b490e3e26bf82ccd113d8cc44c1fa00d1855eb0496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Yes | 65c | 989.38$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 66c | 589.97$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.69 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 34c | 520.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.53 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…4df1backed No | 33c | 476.36$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 42c | 464.32$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.06 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 56c | 360$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked No | 35c | 350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 32c | 309.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…5351backed No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…a50fbacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…0228backed Yes | 77c | 252.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…4a7bbacked Yes | 42c | 233.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 58c | 174.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…3327backed No | 58c | 173.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…d2fbbacked No | 32c | 154.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…cea8backed No | 28c | 149.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 70c | 142.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 71c | 139.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…3c8cbacked No | 40c | 122.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…2db7backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 24c | 117$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 46c | 112$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6d…dbfcbacked No | 47c | 106.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 44c | 104.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 48c | 103.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…5b7cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 66c | 99.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…b0ccbacked Yes | 68c | 73.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 34c | 70.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked Yes | 44c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 68c | 59.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 52c | 58.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…d837backed No | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 47c | 51.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc0…36dcbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked No | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 46c | 43.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed No | 69c | 40.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…7137backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…3eabbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…5ddebacked Yes | 42c | 37.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 37.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…ac96backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed Yes | 64c | 33.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…f44abacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 53c | 29.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 23.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed No | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…46c4backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Abraham" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Muslim" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "UFC" or "America 250" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.