Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75a133b87a6028c282b16a9c776560efb828259490c7cc82895ce83d7314f70c

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,263 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes	69c	809.68$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.37	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No	26c	754.98$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.3	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+44.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes	70c	639.65$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.71	51	66.7%34 W · 17 L	+10.3wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xf385…8f03backed Yes	74c	500$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.14	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed No	31c	499.99$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No	27c	364.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	31c	349.98$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.99	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No	30c	345.34$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.91	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf00…33a7backed No	29c	300.02$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.81	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+43%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	70	40%28 W · 42 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	25c	175.92$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.34	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Yes	74c	162.16$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.16	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	72c	150.46$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.54	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	77c	150$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.94	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed No	17c	135.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes	79c	126.6$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	103	54.4%56 W · 47 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked No	21c	111.43$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No	30c	99.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No	32c	89.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	24c	75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes	79c	70$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No	22c	59.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	133	60.9%81 W · 52 L	+18.4wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	26c	54.08$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.02	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	32c	48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf239…cbccbacked No	74c	38.51$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed No	30c	35.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	30c	33.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x1170…8398backed Yes	78c	32.05$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb684…b5b5backed Yes	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No	38c	26.11$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0e…4419backed Yes	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+127.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes	71c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.35	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event