Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b20d588e04ccffee57380fdd9143fda8f61f227981a901c4ebef87e4e600a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 69c | 410.54$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 34c | 376.12$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 35c | 341.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…822fbacked Yes | 35c | 255.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce4…36a6backed No | 66c | 190$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +355.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3a…4580backed Yes | 58c | 172.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 155.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…a50fbacked No | 66c | 152.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 33c | 151.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +8.6wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…9d46backed Yes | 35c | 141.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 126.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…3170backed No | 65c | 116.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 36c | 114.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…f717backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…fb05backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed Yes | 38c | 90.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…6fc4backed No | 70c | 85.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed No | 67c | 84.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 65c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 68c | 74.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4091…07f2backed Yes | 27c | 74.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 70c | 51.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…7005backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 49.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…66d0backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 35c | 35.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 64c | 35.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…4032backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…70fabacked Yes | 34c | 31.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…d314backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d96…3ad5backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…03cbbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…d784backed No | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…48f5backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 67c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Abraham" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Muslim" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "UFC" or "America 250" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.