TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,418 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6828…1056backed No69c410.54$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5818151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes34c376.12$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…f325backed Yes35c341.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9960%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a05…822fbacked Yes35c255.22$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No63c199.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.997040%28 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce4…36a6backed No66c190$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.61952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+355.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed Yes58c172.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes33c155.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No66c152.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.212236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes33c151.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.843429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No79c150$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53080%24 W · 6 L+8.6wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.4%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8710153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes25c149.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.57939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0ba…9d46backed Yes35c141.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c126.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.991,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe931…3170backed No65c116.49$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes36c114.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e9…8f51backed Yes37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1b…f717backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…fb05backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No66c99.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c99.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf385…8f03backed Yes38c90.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.52055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707f…6fc4backed No70c85.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d11…a3b8backed No67c84.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No65c82$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.381861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No68c74.9$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0621751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4091…07f2backed Yes27c74.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed No67c61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.13785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick65cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206134.4%21 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes37c54.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No70c51.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.39749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1819428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c49.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.45345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8777…66d0backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked No73c39.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…89c2backed Yes35c35.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No64c35.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.642025%5 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0d0…4032backed Yes48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…70fabacked Yes34c31.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.313639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa8e…d314backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed No73c27.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-44.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d96…3ad5backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.06875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.214945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b7a…d35bbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05ab…03cbbacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5181…d784backed No60c18.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…48f5backed No67c17.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No67c16.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.52050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.