TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,581
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,581 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfb81…1cf3backed No1c2,000$20 inLost-$205330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes46c436.51$201 inWon+$235.787640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No5c400$20 inLost-$205127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed No54c376.13$203 inLost-$203.111050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes34c200$67 inWon+$132.77856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No54c200$108 inLost-$1084052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x070a…31aabacked No54c130.98$71 inLost-$70.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+111.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes47c111$52 inWon+$58.9220143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No53c100$53 inLost-$532236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x477d…55a9backed Yes17c100$17 inWon+$834949%24 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…adcabacked Yes45c99.96$45 inWon+$54.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+82.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No55c91.69$50 inLost-$502236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes45c91.67$41 inWon+$50.425851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffbc…b889backed Yes46c54$25 inWon+$29.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0f…ed09backed Yes45c46.75$21 inWon+$25.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No55c30$17 inLost-$16.59749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked No57c20$11 inLost-$11.41442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6cd…240ebacked No67c20$13 inLost-$13.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.