TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "UFC" or "America 250" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,448 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes33c323$108 inLost-$108.157856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No64c157.24$100 inWon+$57.242236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes35c149.98$52 inLost-$52.492326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes38c115.81$44 inLost-$43.5535819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c100$64 inWon+$3664339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No67c100$67 inWon+$331729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-53%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No65c100$65 inWon+$352236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes37c100$37 inLost-$375851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed No65c93.8$61 inWon+$32.83785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick65cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes32c63.13$20 inLost-$20.4349023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x924f…e532backed No79c63$50 inWon+$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes32c58.77$19 inLost-$19.083429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc111…0c2ebacked Yes38c53.15$20 inLost-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x604a…8379backed Yes39c50.95$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3eabbacked Yes34c44.76$15 inLost-$15.31266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes32c41.93$13 inLost-$13.4520143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked No66c40$27 inWon+$13.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed No69c37.24$26 inWon+$11.541030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-54.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…8a7ebacked No61c30.16$18 inWon+$11.664100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed No69c30$21 inWon+$9.32454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No63c24.99$16 inWon+$9.243844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No63c23$14 inWon+$8.515345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No64c20$13 inWon+$7.28555.3%47 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.