Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234a3f45e7e5f9bfb2251351b06fdbe764e69261c6a8ba0ac76b398ccbcb491d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 17c | 1,649$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked No | 24c | 679.87$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…317cbacked No | 45c | 634.74$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…a50fbacked No | 17c | 594.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 17c | 533.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 21c | 526.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed Yes | 79c | 504.41$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 72c | 419.59$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 71c | 418.87$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…0e0fbacked Yes | 72c | 417.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 21c | 391.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…537ebacked No | 24c | 320.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed No | 33c | 304.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f6…2f7ebacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…cea8backed No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 35c | 199.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 17c | 150.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 19c | 139.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 113.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…7005backed No | 13c | 104.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 78c | 103.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…031ebacked Yes | 65c | 100.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…3327backed No | 40c | 88.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…99d3backed Yes | 66c | 85.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 22c | 79.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…5246backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…3eabbacked Yes | 65c | 73.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed No | 28c | 64.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…56d4backed Yes | 69c | 61.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 62c | 59.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 60c | 53.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…79efbacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 71c | 44.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…3c30backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8697backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…0a13backed Yes | 68c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 77c | 28.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked Yes | 73c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…e2b0backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfac…490fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbc…d85cbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d0…4032backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…2bf2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…3cc4backed Yes | 69c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Abraham" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Muslim" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "UFC" or "America 250" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.