Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca535948c4d0dcd9af5758f25dca6e0e8afcb8d9eea1d5a8f34adb3859bb1e50

Rebuilt 21 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,938 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1f7d…5769backed No	20c	925.34$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.08	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+60.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes	69c	632.75$439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.08	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+3.7wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	21c	620.68$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.98	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	68c	498.7$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.76	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+8.9wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x707f…6fc4backed No	22c	463.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.69	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No	23c	450.61$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.58	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	23c	428.87$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.2	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No	23c	428.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed No	18c	383$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.94	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes	78c	300$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed No	41c	245.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	70	40%28 W · 42 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No	23c	189.56$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.01	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	60c	170$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No	20c	150.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes	80c	150$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53dd…6009backed Yes	79c	120$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes	80c	104$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes	80c	101.81$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.61	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e24…cea8backed No	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.9wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-53%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c4e…5b7cbacked No	31c	100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.27per pick	38cpaid	-79.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1158…03f7backed Yes	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed Yes	71c	94$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.62	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes	65c	80.57$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.2	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc0…36dcbacked No	40c	80$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes	71c	68$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.68	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+4.5wins	+0.17per pick	54cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No	29c	66.39$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2e3…3327backed No	32c	61.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.23per pick	60cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes	68c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7106…d3adbacked No	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-4.5wins	-0.45per pick	55cpaid	-87.2%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbe1a…73e1backed No	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	19cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	23c	44$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No	29c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes	78c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+5.1wins	+0.19per pick	44cpaid	+62.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	32c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes	78c	34$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.48	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	55cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05ab…03cbbacked No	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes	67c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x487a…56d4backed Yes	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event