TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes36c1,788$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.073215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe966…0228backed No70c1,165$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes32c1,079$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.777856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No65c800$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked No58c797.85$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4625166.7%34 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes31c750$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51713639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No70c697.21$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.573953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed No66c600$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed Yes33c570.67$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.351942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked Yes29c499.98$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.982250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes30c432.79$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.7935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes35c344.45$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.393560%21 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed No67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No67c299$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.337040%28 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes26c286$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.787939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c9c…ad87backed No59c283.36$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.181752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+120.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes29c225$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.953461.8%21 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+62.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No67c223.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes31c220.24$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes31c219.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.793429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed No35c215.43$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754540%18 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1327640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39fd…7d31backed No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes30c196.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7413342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No79c125.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes27c105.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.996018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d11…a3b8backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-53%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.21450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3eabbacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7022846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9a05…822fbacked Yes33c99.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes37c95.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0310354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6af6…296ebacked No66c90.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No64c77.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7745843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No67c74.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…d2fbbacked No69c72.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes30c71.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3420143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e3…3327backed No71c70.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf79d…4350backed No75c66.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No67c66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2213360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked No68c63.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52763%17 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+62.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked No66c59.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.49955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick69cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0520…89c2backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No68c48.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.735345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad5…9b94backed Yes33c45.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…6cc3backed No70c43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.11050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0e…4838backed No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf62b…6c7cbacked No70c39.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc43d…d75dbacked Yes31c38.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc9…0555backed No69c36.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1107…3dd3backed No70c35.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc3…085cbacked Yes31c33.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5d…a2c5backed No71c32.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9f…878ebacked No71c31.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0861…8aaebacked No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked No67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206134.4%21 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf536…c292backed No69c28.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No68c22.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.183933.3%13 W · 26 L-7.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No68c22.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.184035%14 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No68c22.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.182025%5 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x48de…0c51backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.214352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.88555.3%47 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e0e…4419backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+127.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424d…7137backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7a…d35bbacked No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No68c14.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.