Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2132e52d9a3b30c00a667432a37e43660c8f41ddce19c503f0a27d8510c3f82

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,479 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	32c	769.84$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.63	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+8.9wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	28c	252.35$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.72	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes	30c	241.59$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.21	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	30c	208.16$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.08	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No	66c	200$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	181	51.9%94 W · 87 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1b…f717backed Yes	33c	153.18$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e3…3327backed No	71c	141.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.31	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.23per pick	60cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes	26c	139.96$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.39	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No	73c	136.11$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.11	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed No	79c	126.51$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	31c	123.26$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.21	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	29c	108.31$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	136	39%53 W · 83 L	+12.0wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+89.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.9wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-53%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3eabbacked Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No	67c	98.18$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes	12c	92.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+6.9wins	+0.22per pick	33cpaid	+116%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes	31c	87$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.97	174	49.4%86 W · 88 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	34c	80$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	22c	78.84$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked No	73c	75$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	70cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed No	73c	74$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.98	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	65cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	31c	50.32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed No	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	16cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked No	75c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	68cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	67c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed No	70c	35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes	32c	32.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	133	42.1%56 W · 77 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed No	61c	30.46$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.18per pick	60cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6272…4e64backed Yes	39c	30.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d11…a3b8backed No	71c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa573…3023backed No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked No	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+4.5wins	+0.17per pick	54cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbff3…c49fbacked No	72c	19.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.21per pick	63cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked No	72c	19.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda9…35c9backed No	74c	15.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.98	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	70cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No	76c	15.26$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.73	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	66cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05ab…03cbbacked No	68c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event