Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d6b6258a0efa0e0cd1748cb1ce5de475c292880d73a8830df7dc1c4381f2b39

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,934 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2cde…5b98backed No	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+7.6wins	+0.15per pick	13cpaid	+151%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	+8.6wins	+0.16per pick	14cpaid	+154.8%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes	77c	610$471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.9	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No	26c	378.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	28c	349.99$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	27c	315.15$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.05	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No	27c	315.13$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.05	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked No	35c	250.41$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.31	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-3.6wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed No	53c	237.09$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.26	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed Yes	72c	199.07$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.93	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	28c	196.41$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.36	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No	36c	179.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.79	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	20c	160$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed No	80c	160$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	51cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bcb…6c8ebacked Yes	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e8d…12d9backed Yes	72c	138.05$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.05	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed Yes	73c	123.29$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No	17c	120$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	+25%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No	49c	99.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.99	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.9wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-53%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e24…cea8backed No	30c	95.34$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes	64c	94$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.47	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	76c	74$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.6	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	24c	62$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.12	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes	51c	60.82$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.8	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3470…92fdbacked Yes	78c	53.15$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.55	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	74c	52.75$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.96	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	61c	52.37$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.37	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca9a…dc46backed Yes	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…e628backed Yes	64c	44.09$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.87	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	54cpaid	+43%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	29c	40.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	37c	36.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x500f…d27fbacked Yes	55c	35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d96…3ad5backed Yes	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6272…4e64backed No	38c	31.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-3.5wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes	66c	30.47$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.47	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ab…03cbbacked No	34c	30$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes	70c	29.23$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.72	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	70c	23.49$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda7e…36d8backed Yes	65c	20.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.9	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	69cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	114	24.6%28 W · 86 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event