Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ba7e09052f04448568189cce66adb453d09dfa5433ae2347a67a133f79d5947

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,154
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,154 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb47e…c602backed No	9c	1,100$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No	11c	903.13$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	17c	732.6$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.96	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No	16c	649.43$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.82	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2fe…6050backed Yes	74c	646.07$481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.09	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	10c	625.32$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.22	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe29a…c56fbacked No	31c	515$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.72	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No	20c	454.19$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.89	272	33.8%92 W · 180 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed No	10c	401.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8de…82a1backed No	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked No	7c	350$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed No	11c	340.11$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.37	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3eabbacked Yes	73c	300$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No	26c	300$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	70	40%28 W · 42 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes	74c	293.24$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.24	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked No	24c	245.28$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.02	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x980f…778cbacked Yes	73c	200$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	69c	199.99$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1091…a259backed No	33c	164.5$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.07	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No	26c	149.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a8…2db7backed Yes	68c	149.91$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.97	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed No	39c	139.82$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.46	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b2afbacked No	28c	120.47$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-3.6wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No	10c	111.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	60	18.3%11 W · 49 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x604a…8379backed No	12c	105.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c4e…5b7cbacked No	25c	101.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.27per pick	38cpaid	-79.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	76	40.8%31 W · 45 L	+7.4wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked No	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.9wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-53%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked No	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+9.7wins	+0.13per pick	36cpaid	+156.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	55c	99.99$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No	27c	81.23$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.93	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes	55c	80$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes	73c	68.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	51	66.7%34 W · 17 L	+10.3wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	27c	59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc00b…7f8dbacked Yes	74c	39.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	69c	39.67$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed Yes	75c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes	74c	27.19$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.19	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	75cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed Yes	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-3.9wins	-0.18per pick	50cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed Yes	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x487a…56d4backed Yes	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed Yes	77c	13.57$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.08	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event