TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,747 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes2c2,565$44 inLost-$43.651233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes38c512.69$193 inLost-$193.173046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes24c252.26$61 inLost-$61.53461.8%21 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+62.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No60c165.98$100 inWon+$65.982236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No75c153.06$115 inWon+$38.263953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes35c146.54$51 inLost-$51.435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed No78c128.61$100 inWon+$28.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b02…7e8fbacked No77c116.3$90 inWon+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No61c115.97$70 inWon+$45.69955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No61c106.75$65 inWon+$41.633429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No61c103.26$63 inWon+$40.2749023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No63c100$63 inWon+$372236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes11c93.74$10 inLost-$10.3513342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a05…822fbacked Yes43c78.91$34 inLost-$34.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53dd…6009backed Yes36c68.03$25 inLost-$24.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes22c57.98$13 inLost-$12.647856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked No70c50$35 inWon+$15.1977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac3…ef53backed No75c40.23$30 inWon+$10.231266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked No78c30$23 inWon+$6.62770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x424d…7137backed No75c30$23 inWon+$7.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff3…c49fbacked No63c20$13 inWon+$7.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No74c20$15 inWon+$5.23844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No60c20$12 inWon+$89749.5%48 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No74c19.99$15 inWon+$5.28555.3%47 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.