Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f7ac07a387e70805eb8a8430766f87970eca64190134f1b21f1edafd1b1c21e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 23c | 441.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 46c | 398.76$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 28c | 384.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…a50fbacked No | 26c | 384.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 74c | 327.31$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 55c | 306.36$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 30c | 300.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked No | 56c | 266.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…63ccbacked Yes | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 67c | 200.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…3eabbacked Yes | 53c | 199.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…d2fbbacked No | 27c | 183.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b5b5backed Yes | 69c | 174.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…3327backed No | 58c | 172.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…a1f3backed Yes | 69c | 151.07$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 76c | 130.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 74c | 116.47$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed Yes | 67c | 114.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed No | 26c | 105.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 53c | 93.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 69c | 88.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes | 73c | 82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 67c | 76.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 58c | 74.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 48c | 62.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…92fdbacked Yes | 78c | 56.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…cdb6backed No | 37c | 54.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 74c | 53.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 57c | 52.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…e456backed Yes | 76c | 43.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…cbccbacked Yes | 76c | 38.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5719…5c01backed Yes | 70c | 38.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 36c | 32.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 32.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 36c | 30.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 58c | 30.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 69c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed No | 42c | 26.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ed7dbacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked Yes | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 72c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Abraham" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Muslim" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "UFC" or "America 250" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.