Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5efab0d599e589f910c77904329c8254aa81c3f24cd7617f91038bcbf39dbbc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed No | 2c | 4,755$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed No | 40c | 1,025$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 62c | 482.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.21 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 40c | 300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…63ccbacked Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 34c | 280.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9b…7a60backed No | 34c | 262.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…a50fbacked No | 41c | 246.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 38c | 245$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c60…b0ccbacked Yes | 66c | 152.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 33c | 150.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 57c | 109.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…d2fbbacked No | 52c | 95.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 71c | 81.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 33c | 74.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 21c | 69.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 69c | 57.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked No | 35c | 57.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…2310backed No | 39c | 50.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 68c | 45.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 30c | 45.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed No | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…3327backed No | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…776dbacked Yes | 69c | 34.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…d44fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +131%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 58c | 28.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed No | 48c | 24.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…769fbacked No | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Abraham" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crime" or "Stabbed in the ass" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Muslim" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
- Will Trump say "UFC" or "America 250" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?No won
- Will Trump say "War" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.