TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,366

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,959 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb47e…c602backed Yes15c650.05$98 inLost-$98.034050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes19c620.25$118 inLost-$118.127856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes20c342.59$70 inLost-$70.1449023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes17c259.31$44 inLost-$44.1935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes19c173.91$33 inLost-$33.283429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No79c130$102 inWon+$27.725541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d96…3ad5backed No80c125.53$100 inWon+$25.52875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e3…3327backed No80c125$100 inWon+$251136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No76c100$76 inWon+$242236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes16c84.05$14 inLost-$13.7520143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6272…4e64backed Yes22c76.66$16 inLost-$16.4990%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c72$15 inLost-$14.521,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No75c30$23 inWon+$7.55345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked No79c30$24 inWon+$6.32770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05ab…03cbbacked No77c13$10 inWon+$2.991471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.