TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes39c2,436$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.793215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No55c1,900$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8552070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes44c1,349$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.33046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed No56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f2…e5b6backed No59c675.24$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf399…7005backed No54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2761050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes39c537.67$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0913639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed No68c483.13$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.537640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf385…8f03backed No33c475.13$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.342055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No67c420$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.93080%24 W · 6 L+8.6wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+60.4%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes28c397.28$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.977856.4%44 W · 34 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes39c389.66$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0735819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes30c346.42$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes27c342.04$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.363461.8%21 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+62.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes47c294.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.186018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes35c288.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8613342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes50c285.67$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.42755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.52326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No40c249.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.382236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes33c240$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.84852.1%25 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes32c236.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.93429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af4…89b4backed Yes36c199.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.995246.2%24 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…7d31backed No68c187.5$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked No69c180.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.991827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No54c175$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.54050%20 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727939.2%31 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No56c139.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.92763%17 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+62.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5719…5c01backed Yes42c118.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes33c116.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.662669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9b…41f9backed No72c114.26$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e3…3327backed No72c110.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.821136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf239…cbccbacked Yes35c109.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes30c108.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.664143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes32c106.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0122846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06c3…fcaebacked No78c102.56$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+75.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes46c102$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.592437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9a…dc46backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d5a…efc1backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c99.31$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes47c94.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.054456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed No55c85.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes58c84.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8720143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No72c83.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.071172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…064fbacked No65c79.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6272…4e64backed Yes32c75.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7690%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x424d…7137backed No43c74.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes47c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337657.9%44 W · 32 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f6…2f7ebacked Yes27c64.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.27560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+128.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No54c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4686…4545backed No67c59.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb51…c971backed Yes61c58.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.782250%11 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+78.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Yes44c56.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed Yes35c56.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…3c8cbacked No40c52.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed No64c51.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.561877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6cd…240ebacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54450%22 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75d…97c0backed No65c45.89$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cff…a1f3backed Yes33c43.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff3…c49fbacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick63cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.14427.3%12 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a99…2cfabacked Yes33c34.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.151540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked No41c34.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.181127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes45c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…8a7ebacked No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.794100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3eabbacked No69c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.921266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f97…a349backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e2…126bbacked No44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.94100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+183.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7982…86c4backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1514945%67 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c5d…70f0backed No46c28.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.265100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1185725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked No62c23.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.15955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick69cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f1e…b799backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf180…0053backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.42548%12 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f49…9cc3backed No70c19.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…03cbbacked No73c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.781471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.