Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf9f9041672ce649f30e2f399a70d76131042784d05ef12e209cfef43a00dd61

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,944 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x537e…63ccbacked Yes	62c	457.81$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.77	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	58cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed No	74c	399.99$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+7.2wins	+0.21per pick	41cpaid	+62.6%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes	3c	372.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+3.9wins	+0.24per pick	7cpaid	+413.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes	61c	349$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.43	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c98…a50fbacked No	34c	294.03$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.03	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	31c	237.05$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.86	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	22c	231.49$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.9	136	39%53 W · 83 L	+12.0wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+89.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No	39c	199.97$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.98	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed No	38c	199.04$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.11	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	38c	195.37$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.82	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a3…b394backed No	35c	170.71$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.34	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+3.7wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+226.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No	38c	152.72$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.69	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	73c	136.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes	16c	120$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	65	16.9%11 W · 54 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf239…cbccbacked No	47c	117.96$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	65c	113.79$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.87	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes	30c	106$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	73c	102.44$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.06	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f07…b0d3backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No	41c	99.99$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.99	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No	37c	90.04$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.93	97	49.5%48 W · 49 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes	61c	90$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.25	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes	55c	76$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.42	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No	32c	72.52$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.31	133	60.9%81 W · 52 L	+18.4wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes	79c	70$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.3	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No	73c	68.49$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.49	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes	27c	66.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked No	36c	52.74$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.84	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e24…cea8backed Yes	61c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe1a…73e1backed No	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	19cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	39c	48$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.28	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…e2d5backed Yes	65c	45.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No	74c	44.69$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.41	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No	42c	40$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.2	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+5.1wins	+0.19per pick	44cpaid	+62.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb807…ba00backed No	56c	35.87$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.87	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+79.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…b5b5backed Yes	59c	33.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes	59c	33.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	66.7%34 W · 17 L	+10.3wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe0b5…e89ebacked Yes	61c	32.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5719…5c01backed No	45c	28.1$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f02…901ebacked Yes	73c	26.03$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed No	50c	23.28$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.64	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf180…0053backed No	51c	20.1$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdec6…af25backed Yes	65c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b04…6632backed Yes	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event