Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a69c2f5a3745b17fa805e65c4f8ba75b407559093925b12417307b5683d73bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 49c | 519.96$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.58 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked No | 58c | 205$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…6764backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 47c | 177.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed No | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 40cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…d44fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +131%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…6b19backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?this page
- Will Trump say "31 years" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Border" or "Tariff" 5+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Cambodia" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight wars" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Inflation" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Machete" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Malaysia" or "Kuala Lumpur" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Deal" 7+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "South Africa" or "G20" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand", "Million", or "Billion" 7+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
- Will Trump say "Vicious" or "Brutal" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.