Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34a673b930c7b15bf39b58b23ca7bba2f2f8e11930563b1c01b11a621d9f4884

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,651 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x14a3…b394backed No	33c	655$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.71	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+3.7wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+226.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No	30c	389.99$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	476	9.9%47 W · 429 L	+15.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes	70c	200$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No	26c	163.76$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.88	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4b…f574backed Yes	20c	150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-3.9wins	-0.18per pick	50cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes	64c	150$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	72c	100$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde6f…4a7bbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes	63c	94$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes	70c	75$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	202	47%95 W · 107 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes	67c	74.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc12…eb59backed No	33c	70$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.9	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+3.2wins	+0.46per pick	40cpaid	+104.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes	25c	55.89$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	63	33.3%21 W · 42 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec73…6af3backed Yes	74c	53.06$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes	71c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb957…d44fbacked Yes	76c	46.12$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+131%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4384…175fbacked Yes	75c	40$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Yes	68c	39$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.59	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16d0…a111backed Yes	45c	37.78$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	72c	29.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	160	46.3%74 W · 86 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed No	46c	28.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.55	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes	63c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x569f…5561backed Yes	65c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+5.5wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+49.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x408a…6b19backed Yes	75c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event