TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,002,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$981,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,002,143 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 557 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3d7…ac2bbacked Yes56c417,536$233,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,905.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No46c147,347$67,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,567.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No50c40,000$19,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,100.081533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No49c34,103$16,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,477.4729331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No74c32,499$24,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,388.3213430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes42c26,529$11,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,134.8766222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes29c17,614$5,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,140.67348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes14c15,103$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed No46c15,000$6,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,113.9254122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes32c14,962$4,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,741.2428534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes32c14,040$4,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,512.471,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No66c13,321$8,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,511.4211556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c11,466$5,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,014.7976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No46c10,476$4,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,657.2675122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes29c8,903$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.418618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes31c7,491$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.0763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes30c6,557$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.560127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No60c6,334$3,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.1654675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes32c6,292$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.372359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes32c6,284$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.4115631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No74c5,945$4,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.0916056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes35c5,412$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.773013.3%4 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-62.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No59c4,626$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.5456429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c4,345$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.9978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x823d…bafebacked Yes30c4,025$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2007628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No48c3,874$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.777233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad1c…41cebacked No58c3,589$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.61421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes28c3,470$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.821,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes34c3,405$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.0815017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No54c3,350$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.9816969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3847…df89backed Yes26c3,113$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…c6f8backed Yes41c3,043$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.783122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed No62c2,879$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.622326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes32c2,737$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.7621213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes39c2,652$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.032119%4 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3327…0957backed No55c2,544$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.69944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No71c2,533$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.213762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes25c2,506$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.871249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes30c2,429$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.8918722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0451…db79backed Yes48c2,222$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0701910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-37.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No71c2,182$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.039423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No64c2,147$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.4110857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked No78c2,095$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.554365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked No46c2,065$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.1215435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No54c2,055$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.7334833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes35c1,999$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.6124115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes21c1,988$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.37815.4%12 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes38c1,946$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.3629225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes56c1,789$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007936.7%29 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes25c1,723$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.6715819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes28c1,680$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.7588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed No41c1,658$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.527035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d70…7302backed Yes74c1,590$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.32445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes33c1,575$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.135427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…9218backed No64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.52437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes13c1,540$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.27320.5%15 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8257334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes26c1,390$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.28634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad3b…43d5backed Yes34c1,371$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.8510232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d4…6abbbacked Yes33c1,306$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.611421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked No62c1,292$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.432716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…46e1backed Yes47c1,265$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5951010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes32c1,255$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.688528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes28c1,217$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.65529.1%16 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes34c1,148$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.1231242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked No34c1,130$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.0110818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a52…94cabacked No65c1,124$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.718050%40 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b51…11ddbacked Yes15c1,122$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.522733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes18c1,120$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.186221%13 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes42c1,104$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.2217434.5%60 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fae…6a71backed Yes27c1,103$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No52c1,100$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…a519backed Yes34c1,094$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.622828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf336…c654backed Yes47c1,071$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002825%7 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+148.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No53c1,067$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.733040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes22c1,059$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9134215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No56c1,053$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.241040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No76c1,046$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.956457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes23c1,040$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.81,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No55c1,032$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.364427.3%12 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e91…7e8bbacked Yes39c1,031$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes20c1,013$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.292859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes10c1,003$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1223019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes22c993.48$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes46c983.95$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.117316.4%12 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No61c964.68$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.7243933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked No49c961.4$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.419416%15 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c935.63$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.842,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes37c931.16$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.3933231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed No74c930.82$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.0136411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf312…b94dbacked Yes11c910.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.22630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes11c908$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.882218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Yes29c878.2$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.553636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+73.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes28c849.75$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8416124.2%39 W · 122 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes38c847.82$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.178423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes45c843.36$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1213121.4%28 W · 103 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes46c842.64$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.9319550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c832$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.848320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.