Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x854ad83f3026506a58df603afb5fac3907884a459df49007c13a519d77a84fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $694,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $499,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 69,425$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.96 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 27,138$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.05 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 19,554$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.13 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 7c | 18,202$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.53 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 17,332$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.63 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 16,392$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 12,734$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.73 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 12,519$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.08 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 10,361$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 5c | 8,936$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.43 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 7,258$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 2c | 6,878$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,494$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.61 | 599 | 27%162 W · 437 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 5,400$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 5c | 5,209$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.63 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 5,011$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…0b88backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 4,748$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 2c | 4,300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,296$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.82 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,834$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.39 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 3,832$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 3c | 3,710$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,601$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,212$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 9c | 3,143$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.95 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…027fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,877$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…3badbacked Yes | 0c | 2,805$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 4c | 2,769$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 2,766$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 2,757$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 6c | 2,536$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 139 | 26.6%37 W · 102 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 8c | 2,434$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…2160backed Yes | 4c | 2,411$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed Yes | 9c | 2,247$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 5c | 2,246$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,088$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 2,047$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,974$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 4c | 1,971$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 1c | 1,938$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes | 7c | 1,828$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,673$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…cb6cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,650$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Yes | 2c | 1,625$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,614$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,511$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 5c | 1,379$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,362$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…b94dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,329$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,322$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…eb0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,296$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,224$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 4c | 1,209$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 2c | 1,174$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 5c | 1,139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,006$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 12.6%16 W · 111 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 3c | 999.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 5c | 985.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 7c | 978.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 2c | 941.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 2c | 893.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed Yes | 8c | 847.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 8c | 831.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 3c | 822.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…02a0backed Yes | 2c | 800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 4c | 783.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…c3dbbacked Yes | 2c | 736.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 8c | 724.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…99d8backed Yes | 4c | 707.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf544…4646backed Yes | 4c | 701.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 6c | 683.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3038…fdebbacked Yes | 16c | 644.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…cd93backed Yes | 2c | 632.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +624.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 4c | 549.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 5c | 523.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…93eebacked Yes | 9c | 435.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 3c | 432.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +148%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes | 6c | 425.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 87 | 12.6%11 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…e7b5backed Yes | 5c | 399$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 11c | 384.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.