Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c24d1c7e584b910eebd6f83e3b4a108d6a78f4b29013f5fc0a4bd29d01c9f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $997,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $961,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 62,761$4,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,989.69 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 32c | 28,298$9,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,206.54 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 8c | 25,772$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,621.65 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 7c | 19,762$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,394.15 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 16,832$3,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,535.3 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 16,652$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,349.12 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 53c | 13,962$7,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,513.59 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 40c | 11,043$4,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,582.18 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 27c | 10,812$2,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,907.97 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 9,498$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,428.4 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 29c | 7,731$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,518.91 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed No | 0c | 7,411$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 7,375$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,914.83 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 22c | 7,320$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,708.77 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 3c | 7,203$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,015.13 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 35c | 7,160$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,633.62 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 19c | 6,423$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,231.8 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 2c | 6,038$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,919.4 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 74c | 5,624$4,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,180.9 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 65c | 5,559$3,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.03 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 49c | 5,500$2,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,939.94 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250.49 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 76c | 4,900$3,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,703.8 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 6c | 4,688$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,418.82 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 4,190$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,925.5 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,087$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,061.15 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975.99 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 6c | 3,996$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,748.92 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 3,840$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,715.14 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 46c | 3,635$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.42 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,022$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900.43 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 17c | 2,961$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,449.93 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…d6fcbacked No | 77c | 2,948$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.32 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,891$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.6 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 4c | 2,867$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.21 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,857$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.7 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 15c | 2,857$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.63 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 60c | 2,741$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.99 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 5c | 2,736$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.37 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 78c | 2,719$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.75 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 55c | 2,606$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.33 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed Yes | 11c | 2,495$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.36 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,404$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.53 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 2,222$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.23 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 2,169$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.61 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 2,103$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.44 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 6c | 2,032$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.37 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes | 67c | 2,000$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.48 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.91 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 8c | 1,971$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,947$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.41 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 12c | 1,899$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 15c | 1,856$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.77 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 2c | 1,741$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.09 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 29c | 1,732$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.78 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 6c | 1,723$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.66 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,703$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.68 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…531dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,675$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb949…d03abacked No | 57c | 1,656$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes | 19c | 1,623$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.71 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 13c | 1,585$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.92 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 10c | 1,527$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.85 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 4c | 1,419$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.53 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…e075backed Yes | 71c | 1,340$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.38 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 1,333$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.38 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 4c | 1,304$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.27 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 47c | 1,289$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.7 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,283$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed Yes | 18c | 1,263$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.95 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dc…673dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,255$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.19 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 27c | 1,250$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.35 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 75c | 1,247$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.27 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,170$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.94 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 73c | 1,159$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.17 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 72c | 1,156$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.39 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,122$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.93 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.46 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,077$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.12 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,070$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.02 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 59c | 1,070$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.68 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,063$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.06 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 1,060$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.43 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,050$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.85 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,039$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.92 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…abd4backed Yes | 38c | 1,035$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ac45backed Yes | 55c | 1,022$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…cb14backed Yes | 1c | 1,021$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 1,016$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.13 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 56c | 1,003$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.69 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.54 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…9854backed Yes | 16c | 997.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.88 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed No | 80c | 968.28$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.3 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…055ebacked Yes | 6c | 961.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.17 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.