TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$997,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$961,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes8c62,761$4,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,989.691,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes32c28,298$9,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,206.5466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes8c25,772$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,621.654816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes7c19,762$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,394.1529331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c16,832$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,535.376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes2c16,652$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,349.122359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes53c13,962$7,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,513.5913430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes40c11,043$4,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,582.1828534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes27c10,812$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,907.9760127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes1c9,498$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,428.445511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes29c7,731$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,518.9118618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No0c7,411$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.291,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes6c7,375$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,914.831249.7%12 W · 112 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes22c7,320$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,708.7715631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes3c7,203$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,015.138423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes35c7,160$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,633.6256429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes19c6,423$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,231.824115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes2c6,038$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,919.424710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No74c5,624$4,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,180.954675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes65c5,559$3,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.037334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes49c5,500$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes1c5,000$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,939.9415128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes15c5,000$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,250.4915017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No76c4,900$3,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,703.810857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes6c4,688$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.823408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c4,190$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,925.51,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes25c4,087$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,061.1510322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes1c4,000$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,975.9921220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes6c3,996$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,748.9234215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c3,840$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,715.142,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes46c3,635$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.427936.7%29 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c3,022$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900.431,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes17c2,961$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.933013.3%4 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-62.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb20…d6fcbacked No77c2,948$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.321816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c2,891$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.64345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes4c2,867$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.215529.1%16 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes2c2,857$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,809.79923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes15c2,857$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.6311918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes60c2,741$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.9975122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes5c2,736$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,608.3736411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No78c2,719$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.756457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes55c2,606$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.611040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes1c2,500$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.3310431.7%33 W · 71 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+125.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed Yes11c2,495$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.362326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,404$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,375.531,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes42c2,222$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.2319550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c2,169$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.6178811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes9c2,103$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.4418722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes6c2,032$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.3729225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes67c2,000$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.484351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes1c2,000$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.916097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes8c1,971$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.42119%4 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes12c1,947$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.415427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes12c1,899$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,66713313.5%18 W · 115 L+0.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes15c1,856$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.7713121.4%28 W · 103 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes2c1,741$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.097825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes29c1,732$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.7856817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes6c1,723$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.6622023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes15c1,703$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.6834833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7996…531dbacked Yes37c1,675$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+102.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb949…d03abacked No57c1,656$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes19c1,623$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.713729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes13c1,585$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.927035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes10c1,527$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.8546521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdee0…5447backed Yes4c1,419$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.535139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2d…e075backed Yes71c1,340$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.387833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c1,333$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.3888017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes4c1,304$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.276221%13 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No47c1,289$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.716969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,283$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes18c1,263$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.9514233.8%48 W · 94 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61dc…673dbacked Yes12c1,255$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.193531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes27c1,250$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.3584616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x823d…bafebacked Yes75c1,247$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.277628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes3c1,170$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.949921.2%21 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No73c1,159$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.1759225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes72c1,156$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.3921222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes4c1,122$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.931,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes2c1,100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.465815.5%9 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+98.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes11c1,077$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.1263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes9c1,070$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.028634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes59c1,070$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.6811417.5%20 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes4c1,063$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.0611618.1%21 W · 95 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes71c1,060$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.4399619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes3c1,050$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.8532110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes20c1,039$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.928822.7%20 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c17…abd4backed Yes38c1,035$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.391540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d1…ac45backed Yes55c1,022$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.882128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5814…cb14backed Yes1c1,021$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.822937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+196.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes30c1,016$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.1322718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fae…6a71backed Yes56c1,003$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.695735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes2c1,000$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.579811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes5c1,000$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.547320.5%15 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c1,000$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98362412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes4c1,000$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes2c1,000$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes8c999.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.9921215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15a…9854backed Yes16c997.88$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.885923.7%14 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed26…6282backed No80c968.28$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.33135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes6c961.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.175813.8%8 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.