Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90dc001df5662a3de29c3d81b2c1edf9787fcd3b365fc914064c54f110bc68a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $393,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 47,124$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.47 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 12c | 25,108$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.44 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 39c | 20,934$8,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,128.7 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 8c | 12,673$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.92 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 31c | 8,329$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.77 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 37c | 8,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.99 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 18c | 7,509$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.28 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 5c | 5,665$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.66 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 3c | 5,483$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 5,437$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.65 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 5,105$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.19 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 26c | 4,252$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.37 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 68c | 3,583$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.92 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 59c | 3,516$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.13 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 39c | 3,348$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.2 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 40c | 3,327$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.92 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 36c | 2,775$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 5c | 2,711$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 29c | 2,526$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.86 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…1501backed Yes | 54c | 2,200$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 33c | 2,113$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.54 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 2,076$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.64 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 30c | 2,043$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.54 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,970$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed No | 76c | 1,950$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.23 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,906$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.93 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…4c16backed Yes | 4c | 1,894$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 55c | 1,769$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.47 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 64c | 1,738$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.56 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,414$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 43c | 1,281$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 67c | 1,200$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.31 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 44c | 1,165$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.5 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 55c | 1,124$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.99 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed No | 66c | 1,091$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.46 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…6abbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,051$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,035$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 27c | 980.6$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.05 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 16c | 976.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.95 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes | 16c | 935.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 930.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 56c | 874.89$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.55 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked No | 47c | 844.22$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.22 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 5c | 807.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb949…d03abacked No | 66c | 773.98$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 756.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 80c | 753.09$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 742.59$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.17 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 46c | 726.89$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…36c0backed Yes | 4c | 715.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 4c | 688.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes | 55c | 682.92$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.28 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 681.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 36c | 670$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.81 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 3c | 646.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed No | 66c | 638.95$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.93 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 32c | 614.91$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b0…7f24backed Yes | 11c | 601.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 36c | 599.63$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.02 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 43c | 579.81$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 4c | 567.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 4c | 530.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 530.31$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.63 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…d847backed No | 69c | 522.5$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 42c | 513.86$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.49 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 40c | 502.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.91 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 60c | 499.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…ec01backed Yes | 40c | 499.65$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes | 38c | 462.45$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 460.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…fc1dbacked Yes | 20c | 439.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 437.98$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.82 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 419$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 55c | 418.59$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.06 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 413.06$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…1e16backed No | 70c | 400.45$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 395.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…2160backed No | 70c | 383.44$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.96 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 383.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 3c | 375.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 11c | 360.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 32c | 350.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccb…1bd2backed Yes | 28c | 350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 59c | 339.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…33fbbacked Yes | 30c | 337.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 9c | 330.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed No | 74c | 327.03$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…fc99backed No | 67c | 319.8$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…433bbacked Yes | 21c | 318.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8269…7c3abacked Yes | 7c | 317.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 35c | 301.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 20c | 300.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.