Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4f226eba7a02c9b8968085d1a3a5ba3e840f922bb90145d63e91e3c63c2858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $704,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $600,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $704,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 90,473$4,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,446.7 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 1c | 66,980$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.03 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 33,047$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.07 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 9c | 24,949$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.85 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,060$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,919$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6d…0446backed Yes | 0c | 14,034$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…5056backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 3c | 9,671$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.41 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 2c | 8,378$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,713$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,823$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.04 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 15c | 6,390$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.29 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 18c | 5,825$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.63 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 5,722$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.06 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 10c | 5,698$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.42 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…77ddbacked Yes | 1c | 5,357$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 5,225$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.05 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…84fbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 6c | 4,810$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 11c | 4,115$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.99 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…da60backed Yes | 6c | 4,015$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 3,975$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bd…f3c4backed Yes | 6c | 3,792$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,756$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 3,407$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 3,162$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.29 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…39e6backed Yes | 8c | 3,088$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 4c | 3,061$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,993$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…d963backed No | 78c | 2,525$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.97 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 2,397$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,372$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…ae36backed Yes | 8c | 2,259$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,209$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…1501backed Yes | 31c | 2,200$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 3c | 2,175$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607a…faeabacked Yes | 4c | 2,128$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa882…03d9backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,975$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,967$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,943$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 21c | 1,900$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe770…838abacked Yes | 11c | 1,749$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 18c | 1,721$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.78 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 14c | 1,600$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.8 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 9c | 1,532$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 1,474$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.76 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3100backed Yes | 3c | 1,363$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 1,240$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed No | 79c | 1,211$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.98 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…82f1backed No | 73c | 1,200$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 11c | 1,176$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…588ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,089$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,067$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…8fd9backed Yes | 18c | 1,041$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…46e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,006$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 10c | 1,001$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,001$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.49 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…4a52backed Yes | 13c | 987.92$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes | 3c | 968.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…91c5backed Yes | 14c | 963.01$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…47a8backed Yes | 13c | 957.8$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 3c | 898.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 15c | 855.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…46c4backed Yes | 24c | 851.18$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9408…9cb2backed Yes | 2c | 801.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 770.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Yes | 11c | 752.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 3c | 679.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…168bbacked No | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 12c | 600$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes | 11c | 549.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 19c | 537.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…9404backed Yes | 16c | 535.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed Yes | 3c | 534.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 4c | 522.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 15c | 521.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 80c | 484.77$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…cc55backed Yes | 3c | 460$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 5c | 451$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985f…cf79backed No | 73c | 450$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 4c | 419$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…33fbbacked Yes | 26c | 418.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…6530backed Yes | 2c | 400.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 12c | 399.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.