TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Jaguars vs. Raiders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Jaguars, Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,496,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,595,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,496,296 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 594 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe041…9bddbacked Raiders0c199,994$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Raiders49c114,927$56,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,084.8630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Jaguars59c95,308$56,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,746.2247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Jaguars55c70,000$38,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,5003348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Jaguars53c63,832$33,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,026.4522950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Raiders44c57,629$25,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,617.1119553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Raiders44c49,000$21,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,669.9116545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Jaguars56c42,637$23,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,736.5333553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Raiders45c41,226$18,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,409.6312144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Raiders50c37,202$18,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,495.4441947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Jaguars55c35,934$19,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,170.344652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Raiders39c35,756$13,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,946.5131240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Raiders47c35,375$16,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,600.761148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Jaguars61c35,000$21,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,6508946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jaguars46c33,741$15,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,159.5660049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Raiders45c30,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,50016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Jaguars54c28,104$15,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,792.5930743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raiders44c25,866$11,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,503.286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Raiders54c23,146$12,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,412.7420755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Raiders51c21,833$11,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,225.692740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Jaguars56c21,136$11,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,299.843458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Raiders45c20,785$9,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,353.2517647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Jaguars54c20,140$10,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,197.388344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0584…de3ebacked Jaguars56c19,643$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,642.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Jaguars56c17,987$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,987.1918650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6adb…a902backed Jaguars46c17,492$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,492.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Raiders61c14,734$8,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,987.673040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raiders39c14,094$5,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,536.6550242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Jaguars56c13,382$7,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,894.6614951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Raiders43c13,111$5,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,602.938532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars54c12,720$6,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8371,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Jaguars42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8001580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+42.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Jaguars55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Raiders45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Jaguars53c9,000$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2303979.5%31 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Jaguars56c8,918$4,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,939.2313142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Jaguars57c8,365$4,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.368446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Raiders46c8,214$3,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,740.2637350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Raiders30c8,019$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.941618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars55c8,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Jaguars64c7,731$4,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.15650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Raiders45c7,500$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,37514450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raiders45c7,300$3,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28512944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Raiders43c6,754$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,912.1331854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Jaguars55c6,727$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,027.2120634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Jaguars54c6,578$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.0610442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed Raiders60c6,288$3,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,772.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Jaguars50c6,000$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0304546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Jaguars57c6,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9914148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Jaguars44c5,680$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,180.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Raiders67c5,261$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,539.817655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Jaguars50c5,214$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,604.899359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Raiders47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35021227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Raiders47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3503043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Jaguars65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,75011755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Raiders45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2508845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Raiders44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Raiders33c4,737$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.0123244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Raiders43c4,703$2,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,022.217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Jaguars57c4,500$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.9924351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raiders43c4,346$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.9853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Raiders45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+45.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Jaguars50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00013145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raiders45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96c…0fb2backed Raiders67c3,991$2,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Jaguars54c3,770$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.1231056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raiders45c3,590$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.4227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Jaguars56c3,539$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.013256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Raiders47c3,500$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64518044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Raiders47c3,500$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64526547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Raiders45c3,351$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.262540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raiders50c3,265$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.1556852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Jaguars46c3,143$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.6516344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Jaguars57c3,127$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.919952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Jaguars55c3,118$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.6741248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…078abacked Jaguars54c3,000$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+37.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Raiders44c2,909$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.043056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raiders46c2,538$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.2554451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Jaguars53c2,502$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.476960.9%42 W · 27 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3a…64b7backed Jaguars56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+72.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Jaguars56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1002161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7628…b822backed Jaguars48c2,400$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2401353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe221…234dbacked Raiders57c2,325$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Raiders40c2,297$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.318035%28 W · 52 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Raiders33c2,295$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.192412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-72.5%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Jaguars55c2,240$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.9911254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Jaguars55c2,148$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.0820646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Raiders44c2,111$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.8183447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Jaguars36c2,015$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.5136246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Jaguars64c2,009$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.212680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf9e…239fbacked Jaguars55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2c…94c5backed Jaguars42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Jaguars51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.065766.7%38 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fa…ae2ebacked Jaguars60c1,933$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0e…6576backed Jaguars43c1,780$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.43944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Raiders1c1,710$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.654311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410b…5c3cbacked Raiders59c1,690$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9901338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Raiders16c1,557$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.359944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d7…126cbacked Jaguars67c1,509$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Raiders46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.9922349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.