NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1586e40b2696e75b0c787e6947c7505d0e8558f55bbfd325941f8953988972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 8,547$4,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,102.69 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 54c | 4,017$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.21 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 46c | 4,017$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.21 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 2,622$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.96 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 51c | 1,661$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.1 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8938…f7a9backed Over | 52c | 1,656$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,565$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.97 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…2867backed Over | 52c | 1,382$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…b7f6backed Under | 48c | 1,366$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…6353backed Under | 48c | 1,326$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.04 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ec8ebacked Under | 48c | 1,085$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.16 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…38c2backed Under | 48c | 1,017$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…2327backed Over | 53c | 960.5$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bca…182fbacked Over | 52c | 795$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 51c | 750$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 54c | 246.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 132.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 30.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 43.5this page
- Jaguars vs. RaidersJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineRaiders won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Raiders Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.