NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x418aca66b45b8e459f461d7609471bedc214a8ab2f808182af74562e8e5589fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Jaguars, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Jaguars | 42c | 40,828$17,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,291.59 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars | 40c | 17,003$6,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,765.04 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Raiders | 60c | 13,228$7,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,291.2 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Raiders | 60c | 8,561$5,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444.32 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Raiders | 60c | 8,359$5,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,316.19 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Raiders | 58c | 8,124$4,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441.8 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 59c | 6,302$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,592 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Raiders | 61c | 5,801$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.29 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 54c | 4,511$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.19 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Jaguars | 2c | 3,909$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 58c | 2,014$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.75 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Jaguars | 42c | 1,638$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.33 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raiders | 58c | 1,555$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.73 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Jaguars | 48c | 1,254$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.2 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Raiders | 60c | 835$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raiders | 59c | 795$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.22 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Raiders | 53c | 766.29$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Raiders | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Jaguars | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Raiders | 56c | 573.46$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Raiders | 52c | 558$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Raiders | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raiders | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Raiders | 50c | 216$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Jaguars | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Raiders | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Jaguars | 43c | 176.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raiders | 59c | 125.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Jaguars | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Jaguars | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Raiders | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Jaguars | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jaguars | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Jaguars | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Raiders | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Jaguars | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Jaguars | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raiders | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)this page
- Jaguars vs. RaidersJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineRaiders won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Raiders Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.