NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eaa4b8cc8fde81218bf62c0fc422d0b9249d5918435f0aa02032c0ff7c05349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 53c | 11,321$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 6,705$3,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,553.59 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 47c | 4,888$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.64 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 3,135$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.75 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 2,771$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.08 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 2,544$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.82 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 2,212$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.41 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 1,573$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.19 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 53c | 1,167$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.51 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 50c | 719.06$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.69 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 50c | 718$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Under | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 47c | 578.65$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.68 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 50c | 540$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 384.28$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.18 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 51c | 246.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Over | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 101 | 74.3%75 W · 26 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 103.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 35c | 98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 52c | 73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5this page
- Jaguars vs. RaidersJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineRaiders won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Raiders Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)Raiders won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.