NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fba28d314b6abfe214cf1270bdc19f3d0d3ae46aa0316c3cda5585c8210d7d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Jaguars, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders | 52c | 55,694$28,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,769 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Jaguars | 48c | 55,578$26,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,677.63 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Jaguars | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,599.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raiders | 51c | 22,007$11,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,783.51 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Raiders | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Jaguars | 50c | 16,555$8,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,277.52 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Raiders | 51c | 16,006$8,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,786.27 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 48c | 13,321$6,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,395.76 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Jaguars | 43c | 6,185$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.88 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raiders | 51c | 5,313$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,621.81 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Raiders | 57c | 5,136$2,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.63 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 51c | 4,674$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.85 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars | 50c | 4,284$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.14 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed Raiders | 54c | 2,435$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Jaguars | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Raiders | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Raiders | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raiders | 52c | 1,247$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.8 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Jaguars | 49c | 1,168$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.46 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 51c | 1,107$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.93 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Raiders | 51c | 1,056$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.43 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Raiders | 51c | 785$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.65 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Raiders | 53c | 756.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Raiders | 52c | 701.91$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.92 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 48c | 645.12$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.28 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Jaguars | 51c | 557$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.5 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Raiders | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…ef8cbacked Jaguars | 50c | 488.77$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Raiders | 51c | 480$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.8 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Jaguars | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Raiders | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Raiders | 52c | 365.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.38 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Jaguars | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Raiders | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Jaguars | 49c | 250$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Jaguars | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Jaguars | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Jaguars | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Jaguars | 49c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Jaguars | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Jaguars | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Jaguars | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Jaguars | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Raiders | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Raiders | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Jaguars | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Raiders | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jaguars | 50c | 26.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Raiders | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Raiders | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)this page
- Jaguars vs. RaidersJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: 1H MoneylineRaiders won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 43.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Raiders: O/U 45.5Over won
- Raiders Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Raiders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.