Earnings · resolved market
Will Celsius say "Input Cost" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1317bbce89598d438045b0cec1f7f46fdf580c06ca08e13b00917d16f24c85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes | 51c | 736.18$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 49c | 601$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 55c | 96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed No | 38c | 64.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…ad73backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…58c6backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked No | 45c | 30.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celsius say "Input Cost" during earnings call?this page
- Will Celsius say "Alcohol" during earnings call?No won
- Will Celsius say "Amazon" during earnings call?No won
- Will Celsius say "High Noon" during earnings call?No won
- Will Celsius say "PepsiCo" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Celsius say "Recall" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Celsius say "Vibe" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.