World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c53332a765aabfa2b3881d2f3efec587199823b04d22bbb09318d72ea0f9845
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf515…0805backed No | 76c | 1,032$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked No | 61c | 896.8$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 26c | 501.56$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…7f47backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 19c | 299.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 39c | 180.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4d…8cc3backed Yes | 11c | 154.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 42c | 108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +348.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…98debacked Yes | 42c | 92.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…82ebbacked No | 59c | 85.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 32.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…8886backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…fdb1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 54c | 19.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 25+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Budget" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Cost of Living" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Labour" 8+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Liz" or "Truss" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's QuestionsYes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Tittle Tattle" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.