TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,703 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes9c11,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+261.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd076…d2efbacked Yes8c10,160$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked No37c549.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.251866.7%12 W · 6 L+5.2wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+106.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4533…d575backed Yes56c513.66$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.62330.4%7 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9473…3b20backed No48c291$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.132462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x54bf…0eb3backed Yes74c271.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No23c218.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa502…3040backed Yes54c202.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.412356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed Yes62c200$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133d…cb66backed No50c182$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No39c137$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.572060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+86.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed No41c135$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.83354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No38c87.26$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7910658.5%62 W · 44 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.622045%9 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x151d…7362backed Yes60c65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick63cpaid-78.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No38c62.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0246314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe280…f4d9backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51040%4 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No38c42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.041963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked No37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.25354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No35c33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.588012.5%10 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.49851%50 W · 48 L+10.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d2…9e90backed Yes64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No43c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.682673.1%19 W · 7 L+6.1wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+36%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45945.8%27 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes72c18.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47166.3%1 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick33cpaid-87%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.