Earnings · resolved market
Will Snowflake say "AWS" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0e362946ee32c4bab900eb197c0d4bb16bc6ea126e7de2b2649d209f7e6fc7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 19c | 311.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +6.6wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…59bdbacked No | 33c | 301.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 21c | 249$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…f4d9backed Yes | 69c | 236.42$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 23c | 221$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 13c | 218.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 79c | 206.47$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…3040backed Yes | 67c | 106.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 104.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed No | 21c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 24c | 47.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…48aabacked No | 57c | 43.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…9e90backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 77c | 29.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78d…63fbbacked Yes | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Snowflake say "AWS" during earnings call?this page
- Will Snowflake say "Azure" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Competition" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Europe" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Hiring" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Snowflake say "Iceberg" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Partnership" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Snowflake say "Repurchase" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Snowflake say "Retention" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.