Earnings · resolved market
Will Snowflake say "Competition" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9059924898aeac94859d5c6a25fc27f57047c9f30cafa0f78c752513ec8b9721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b36…e99bbacked Yes | 7c | 11,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d575backed Yes | 51c | 903.81$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.81 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 44c | 499.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 60c | 431.11$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 44c | 290$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7f…2004backed No | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 30c | 109.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 56c | 97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…7d31backed No | 72c | 88.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 45c | 84.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed No | 64c | 77.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 46c | 58.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed No | 54c | 56.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…672bbacked No | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…3ea4backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d06…65c2backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e04…7ce0backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…7362backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Snowflake say "Competition" during earnings call?this page
- Will Snowflake say "AWS" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Snowflake say "Azure" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Europe" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Hiring" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Snowflake say "Iceberg" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call?No won
- Will Snowflake say "Partnership" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Snowflake say "Repurchase" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Snowflake say "Retention" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.