TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Snowflake say "Azure" during earnings call?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2e…14b5backed Yes7c9,850$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No22c403.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.661457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa502…3040backed Yes58c300$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1732356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe280…f4d9backed Yes68c220$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.11040%4 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No33c206$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.02977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+58.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9722…5304backed Yes75c200$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4533…d575backed Yes78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1172330.4%7 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No20c146.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.891450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x133d…cb66backed No50c110.79$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9473…3b20backed No25c90$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.122462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x39fd…7d31backed No55c78$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.12185.7%18 W · 3 L+6.5wins+0.31per pick55cpaid+97.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes79c60.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes74c53.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4520331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb684…b5b5backed Yes80c37.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed No35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.753354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc12…eb59backed Yes53c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.465540%22 W · 33 L+8.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+22.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1c94…5b86backed Yes72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39d2…9e90backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b9…52b0backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.