Earnings · resolved market
Will Adobe say "Qualcomm" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b91e5ea43beb97aa3451a085cd1b7e5becccb4f3242e798340b79c99a3b50cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x487a…5040backed Yes | 50c | 217.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 55c | 132$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed No | 54c | 65.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 41c | 49.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +6.6wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 53c | 42.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…2983backed No | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adobe say "Qualcomm" during earnings call?this page
- Will Adobe say "3D" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Adobe say "Black Friday" during earnings call?No won
- Will Adobe say "Firefly Video" during earnings call?No won
- Will Adobe say "Google Cloud" during earnings call?No won
- Will Adobe say "Humain" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Adobe say "LLM Optimizer" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Adobe say "Semrush" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.