Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x800e86bd96cb7d63cea1dfa4969f578613ab755c6912b2d14804ba24ecb86026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $502,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 77c | 25,173$19,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,771.96 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 35c | 16,731$5,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,817.34 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 35c | 14,723$5,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,623.66 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 64c | 13,973$8,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,013.39 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 24c | 10,566$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,007 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 57c | 9,337$5,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,983.71 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 44c | 8,733$3,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,857.96 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 29c | 8,410$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,956.84 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 2c | 7,290$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.89 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 24c | 6,074$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,604.11 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 30c | 5,619$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,929.23 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 35c | 5,330$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,440.28 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 25c | 4,956$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.79 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 37c | 4,589$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.42 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 28c | 4,429$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.1 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 43c | 4,295$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,467.69 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…c6f8backed Yes | 30c | 4,035$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,804.76 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 34c | 3,984$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.62 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked No | 1c | 3,700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 63c | 3,696$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.02 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 3,099$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.35 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 38c | 2,882$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.06 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 45c | 2,808$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.52 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 58c | 2,675$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.01 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 47c | 2,298$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.43 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,226$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.76 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 30c | 2,215$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.65 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 2,158$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.75 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 31c | 2,100$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.77 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…afaebacked No | 2c | 2,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 66c | 2,066$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.14 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 46c | 2,048$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.06 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…d002backed Yes | 65c | 2,032$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.38 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.88 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…70b4backed Yes | 15c | 1,990$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 1c | 1,853$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,710$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.09 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 29c | 1,583$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.71 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked No | 61c | 1,496$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.23 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf222…6905backed Yes | 32c | 1,470$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 34c | 1,386$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.64 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,363$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.7 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 75c | 1,350$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.5 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…c4c8backed Yes | 68c | 1,271$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 38c | 1,269$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.13 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 35c | 1,250$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.49 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed Yes | 54c | 1,228$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.02 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.98 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 38c | 1,196$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.16 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 44c | 1,132$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.19 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 1,113$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.72 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 1,091$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.2 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 1,014$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.55 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 24c | 1,011$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.33 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…652dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,005$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 41c | 987.32$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.28 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 24c | 977.91$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.61 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 37c | 947.38$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.28 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 40c | 941.81$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.2 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 11c | 938.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.37 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 41c | 854.19$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.03 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 49c | 842.33$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.3 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked Yes | 37c | 816.41$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.89 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 28c | 809.49$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.76 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes | 44c | 803.27$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.54 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes | 13c | 799.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.99 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 14c | 799.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.99 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 39c | 795.04$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.9 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 34c | 794.11$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.11 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…909abacked No | 72c | 790$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 21c | 783.9$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.07 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 28c | 773.89$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.04 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 755.91$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.25 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 714.42$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 21c | 702.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.49 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 29c | 688.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.72 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 40c | 679.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.7 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 35c | 672.55$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 27c | 666.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 39c | 649.88$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.04 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 32c | 648$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.64 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 30c | 636.24$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.64 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 31c | 632.88$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.97 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed No | 80c | 609.29$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 17c | 604.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.13 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 51c | 603.82$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.82 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 24c | 603$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.45 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed Yes | 41c | 600$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.73 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 28c | 600$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 76c | 599.95$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.96 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 29c | 591.03$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.63 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 589.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…2160backed Yes | 29c | 578.13$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.6 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.