Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c609666dcbb5b59e4ec749f31d20f7088b9cbf6a084bfa36f75e1a31ca62009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $558,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $557,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $558,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 480 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73be…11dfbacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 30,198$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.04 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 64c | 20,774$13,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,272.16 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 46c | 11,456$5,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,132.52 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 20c | 10,461$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.67 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…c6c8backed Yes | 0c | 9,630$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes | 64c | 7,236$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 48c | 6,396$3,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.7 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 45c | 6,303$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,435.42 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 60c | 5,515$3,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,323.83 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 64c | 5,485$3,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,538.06 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 44c | 5,315$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,981.81 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…a909backed Yes | 1c | 5,033$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 57c | 4,529$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.05 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 41c | 4,100$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 59c | 3,813$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.83 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 60c | 3,802$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 39c | 3,648$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.99 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 61c | 3,618$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.22 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 66c | 3,595$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.66 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 24c | 3,443$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 52c | 3,378$1,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.84 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 54c | 3,235$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.99 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 13c | 3,230$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 44c | 2,983$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.1 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 42c | 2,735$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.05 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 45c | 2,716$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.21 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 35c | 2,200$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 40c | 2,185$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.69 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,158$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.67 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 65c | 2,129$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.39 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 46c | 2,119$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.5 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 64c | 2,100$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.27 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…afaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked No | 44c | 1,900$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.98 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked No | 35c | 1,881$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.89 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…d963backed No | 68c | 1,851$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.03 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,797$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.04 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…67d0backed Yes | 67c | 1,787$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…e850backed No | 79c | 1,767$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…878dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,725$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.92 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 63c | 1,634$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.51 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…c6f8backed Yes | 59c | 1,577$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.49 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,557$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.55 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 17c | 1,500$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.97 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…1d7cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,476$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,455$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.29 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 50c | 1,317$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.37 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 1,310$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.84 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 30c | 1,303$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.13 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 73c | 1,272$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.87 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 71c | 1,248$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.28 | 211 | 22.3%47 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88f…4846backed No | 75c | 1,206$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes | 57c | 1,192$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.11 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b9…4323backed Yes | 6c | 1,155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 71c | 1,131$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.4 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…652dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,103$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.95 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 22c | 1,067$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.17 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…2e95backed Yes | 64c | 1,066$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…c4c8backed Yes | 68c | 1,059$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…b5d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…afd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,026$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 39c | 1,018$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.1 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 53c | 999.99$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 59c | 993.12$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.1 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 14c | 920$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 65c | 917.1$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.74 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 910.47$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.15 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed No | 68c | 877.43$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.29 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 61c | 874.98$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.95 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 50c | 857.12$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.02 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 26c | 828.08$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.8 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 38c | 824.85$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.83 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 818.16$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.19 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845b…2c7cbacked Yes | 74c | 807.6$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 798.81$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.74 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 57c | 784.81$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.8 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 13c | 750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…ffcebacked Yes | 64c | 695.87$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 50c | 688.48$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.6 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 29c | 675$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.7 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 60c | 672.1$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…0ac3backed Yes | 46c | 667.09$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 47c | 651.58$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.59 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…389ebacked Yes | 79c | 650$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 69c | 648.04$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821b…8b2bbacked Yes | 53c | 634.3$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 60c | 625$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61dc…673dbacked Yes | 60c | 621.8$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.74 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 618.64$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.